Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 3.273490 3.536518 3.834702 4.203806 4.657696 5.211516 5.963299
2025-02-16 2.934166 3.271120 3.682118 4.239908 5.014545 6.126970 8.046263
2025-02-23 2.655332 3.007891 3.454757 4.093471 5.049718 6.589804 9.862702
2025-03-02 2.509783 2.883266 3.373300 4.108848 5.297206 7.476903 13.719901
2025-03-09 2.388824 2.773157 3.290806 4.098433 5.489726 8.375641 20.562138
2025-03-16 2.268513 2.651139 3.175295 4.014447 5.526607 8.976908 31.790046
2025-03-23 2.213301 2.611390 3.170253 4.100026 5.898220 10.755411 NaN
2025-03-30 2.111103 2.498641 3.047141 3.971704 5.805397 11.101699 NaN
2025-04-06 2.016748 2.391489 2.924500 3.830182 5.654825 11.161794 NaN
2025-04-13 1.945231 2.312899 2.839546 3.744795 5.610977 11.638604 NaN
2025-04-20 1.918345 2.296016 2.846472 3.820502 5.952715 14.368996 NaN
2025-04-27 1.911935 2.307708 2.897667 3.982860 6.570990 21.435252 NaN
2025-05-04 1.871801 2.269488 2.869568 3.997476 6.827746 29.021887 NaN
2025-05-11 1.837943 2.238954 2.851850 4.030867 7.163970 49.049698 NaN
2025-05-18 1.776480 2.164387 2.757483 3.899218 6.938698 48.497856 NaN
2025-05-25 1.745542 2.134487 2.735164 3.913098 7.203594 127.305578 NaN
2025-06-01 1.712784 2.100334 2.703519 3.903712 7.391095 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.671007 2.050858 2.643464 3.827899 7.312508 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.657191 2.043464 2.653994 3.905148 7.861121 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.613440 1.988416 2.580176 3.789248 7.578395 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.569486 1.932073 2.502495 3.660948 7.227708 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.535472 1.890348 2.448760 3.583296 7.080663 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 1.526433 1.886885 2.460557 3.652154 7.577565 NaN NaN